A few weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals were set for the biggest game of the season. Tragic tragedy struck when Bills safety Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field, and the game was never finished. Hamlin is thankful to be out of the hospital, avoiding nerve damage, and hopefully on the road to recovery.
Meanwhile, the two teams should start by giving NFL fans a game they haven’t seen in a few weeks back, when they meet on Sunday afternoon in the AFC divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Last year, the Bills lost in the division to the Kansas City Chiefs, one of the greatest football games in recent memory. The Bengals, too, beat the same Kings in the AFC title game, and eventually represented the conference in the Super Bowl.
Now, the Bills and Bengals will win the right to face the winner of the Chiefs and Jaguars game in next week’s conference title game. What will it be? We’re glad you asked. Before we break down the matchup and provide a prediction, here’s how to watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 22 | Time: 3pm ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: CBS | River: Paramount + (click here)
Impossible: Bill -5.5, O/U 49
Featured Games | | Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
When Bengal has the ball
Over the past few weeks, Cincinnati’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries. Right tackle La’el Collins is out for the year with a torn ACL. Right guard Alex Cappa suffered a groin injury in Week 18 and will be out this Sunday. Left tackle Jonah Williams injured his knee last week against the Ravens and is out again this week. That means the Bengals will start Hakeem Adeniji, Max Scharping and Jackson Carman along with Ted Karras rookie guard Cordell Volson.
That doesn’t bode well against one of the NFL’s best defenses — even if that front is still without Von Miller. The Bills could release Greg Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Ed Oliver, and Tim Settle, and figure to have one, if not all of DaQuan Jones and Jordan Phillips. Buffalo’s pass rush dropped from 35.3% when Miller was healthy to 30.3% when he wasn’t, according to TruMedia; but last week against the Dolphins, the Bills shot up to 39.2%.
Joe Burrow can relieve some of the pressure by getting the ball out quickly, as he often does. His average time to throw this season was just 2.55 seconds, tied for second in the NFL behind only Tom Brady. But Burrow also threw more touchdowns this season (8.3% of his attempts went 20 yards in the air) than he did a year ago (11.9% last year).
Sacrificing explosiveness for quickness and getting the ball in the hands of players has helped Cincinnati a lot at times this season, especially when Burrow can get the ball out of the hands of Ja’Marr Chase, who usually doesn’t give up with the first defender. But Buffalo’s defense is designed to make opponents look that way, so the Bills can use their team speed to fly to the ball and limit yards after the catch. Chase is better than almost anyone in the league at doing this, while Tee Higgins is one of the NFL’s most competitive players, able to win at the receiving end by using his body and wingspan to keep opposing backs off their hands. ball.
Buffalo is usually content to play the zone and run only four defenders, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier switch things up a bit this week after seeing how well the Ravens did in throwing the Bengals at their games. test results and the unusual appearance behind them. The Bills have the bodies and athleticism to replace Burrow snap after snap, and they can play their preferred look while blending in whether they’re in Cover-2, Cover-3, men across the board, quarterback, or something else. Keeping Burrow from knowing what to expect when he drops back to pass is the best way to slow him down, giving him enough time to destroy the offensive line.
Burrow can make plays outside of the offense’s scheme, and he has enough confidence in Chase, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to make plays on the ball if they can get it out of the way quickly before hitting home runs. . Those guys can bless Burrow’s faith, but it will be tough to do against Buffalo’s secondary.
Because of their offensive line issues, it seems unlikely that the Bengals will be able to control the game on the ground. Their running game wasn’t great even though the line was healthy, and Buffalo’s game is one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Bengals are better off putting the game on Burrow’s shoulders, and I believe he will beat the Bills with the combination of his mentality, his quick trigger, and his exemplary tools around the perimeter.
When the Bills have the ball
The last time these two teams met, we only saw Buffalo’s offense on one drive. Therefore, most of what we wrote about the matchups preview for this game still applies:
The Bills and Bengals haven’t played each other since Josh Allen was, this version of Josh Allen. The last time these two teams played came back in 2019, when Allen was still in his second NFL season. This lack of familiarity is why I’m excited to see the kind of bespoke game plan Bengals coach Lou Anarumo is coming up with to deal with the unique challenge Allen faces on defense.
We’ve seen him do a good job against Patrick Mahomes, the only player in Allen’s stratosphere as a versatile player, so it will be interesting to see if Anarumo’s attack on Allen is similar to what he did. worked against Mahomes — and if not, how the game was different. Buffalo and Kansas City’s offenses are not identical despite being built around players with similar gifts, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Anarumo borrows parts of Kansas City’s game plan for the matchup.
As such, knocking down as many defenders as possible to block and only run three or four seems like a solid counter to Buffalo’s tendency to run. It could disrupt the Bills’ passing lanes, and filling the middle of the field with multiple defenders could help take advantage of Allen’s recent inaccuracies by positioning players to pick off dropped balls. It would also allow the Bengals to commit multiple defenders to Stefon Diggs, forcing Allen to beat them with his second-and-high scores. Especially with injuries and youth in high school, it seems like a great option.
The Bills got a good game from extra point guard last week against the Dolphins, with Gabe Davis catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown, Dawson Knox catching three for 20 and a touchdown, and Cole Beasley and Khalil Shakir combining for five receptions for 86. yards and another score. Diggs had seven catches for 114 yards, but was very quiet after the first quarter. I feel that if the Bengals can force the Bills to win exactly like they did last week, with Diggs being quiet for most of the game and the other guys doing a lot of damage the rest of the way, they will be quiet. they are really happy with themselves. The question is whether they can fulfill this plan given their weakness at cornerback. Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt (and Dax Hill, who took three penalties last week) could be beaten, and if Allen finds Diggs — or even Davis — a match for either of them, he should be. he was expected to take his bullets.
If he does, the Bengals will have to do something about coming up with throws when he’s foul or aggressive. Allen has been willing to force things late this season, and we saw last week how his tendency to do so can keep any opponent in the game against Buffalo for longer than expected. (And the Bengals aren’t anyone’s opponent, given their offense.)
The key there is to force the pressure, and to keep him from going down the field to run with the ball. It’s hard to keep up, but Buffalo’s offensive line makes it possible – especially since Cincinnati sports a strong play in Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. If the Bengals can pressure the right side of the Bills’ line and force Allen to sneak left instead of right (it’s better to throw when he’s moving to his tight end), that’s good for them.
The Bills like to save Allen’s rushes in big games, and it’s possible we’ll see more of them here to improve the math going forward. Cincinnati on very much difficult to run when DJ Reader is on the field, so although the Bills have been running very well with Devin Singletary and James Cook recently, it would be better to lose something different from the Bengals in your hopes. getting a little better than possible on the ground.
Prediction: Bills 26, Bengals 23
