The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 of 5 “increase” in the risk of severe weather from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. About 4.5 million Americans are in the area, including residents of New Orleans; Baton Rouge; Gulfport, Miss.; and Mobile, Ala.
On the cold side of the storm, snow is expected. Tornado watches and warnings, as well as winter weather advisories, from eastern New Mexico to western Ohio. Up to 8 inches of snow may come out of the fast-moving storm, which is expected to enter the Great Lakes late Wednesday.
The weather so far this month has been wildly unpredictable with severe thunderstorms, but it’s winter in the quiet eastern United States. Since January, the Storm Prediction Center has recorded 138 tornado reports compared to a monthly average of about a dozen.
In the east, mild weather, although suitable for thunderstorms, has resulted in snowfall. New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and DC have yet to record measurable snowfall, and Boston is at 4.3 inches — compared to an average of more than 20 inches so far this season.
A storm is expected to hit central and northern Texas and possibly Oklahoma Tuesday morning. They must be raised, or buried in the hot air rising above and on the deep lips of the cold. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will issue a hurricane threat any time soon.
Near the coast over the tropical channel, a line of thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds and persistent storm surge. There may also be a few swirling thunderbolts swirling in front of it.
The storm is expected to pass through Houston and Galveston, Texas in the afternoon, reach the Golden Triangle in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana in the evening, and possibly make landfall in New Orleans by midnight. There is a low chance of a severe thunderstorm from New Orleans to Mobile.
On Monday morning, a power outage spread across Las Vegas. It should dip southeast over Chihuahua and Coahuila, Mexico, before crossing South Texas near Brownsville and working its way northeast through Tuesday.
The lows will pass through northern Louisiana on their way to the Mississippi Valley. Since low tides circulate in the Northern Hemisphere, this means that the winds ahead of this system will be from the south. This will draw the warm, humid air of the Gulf of Mexico to the north – but it may be only 100 kilometers or so north of the actual coast. The height at which it rises to the north will determine the height of the tornado threat.
At the same time, immersion in the jet stream should sweep the surface with significant changes in wind speed and/or direction and height. The upper winds should flow from the south – then the southwest in the central areas, and the south-southeast in the extreme. That “storm” will make it easier for any storm that passes through the atmosphere to rotate.
Behind the system, cold air moving south is expected to drop snow in parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, central Indiana, western Ohio and southern Michigan.
The frost line will be narrow, but within the group, good accumulation is expected. In parts of the South, most people can expect 3 to 6 inches, and 4 to 8 inches in hard-hit areas of the Midwest.
Wind is not expected to be an issue. Several metro areas, such as St. Louis; Fort Smith, Ark.; Indianapolis; and Dayton, Ohio, are included in the hurricane watch.
Snow is expected to arrive in the Sooner State Tuesday morning and last for about 18 hours in most areas.
Precipitation will begin as rain in northwest Arkansas Tuesday evening, turning into heavy snow as the air cools. Western Tennessee could see snow Tuesday night, and Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will likely wake up to snow on their doorstep Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday through Thursday, snow will reach the central Northeast, with mostly rain expected along the East Coast.
